I am very disappointed by the inability of the two 2nd-Gen-optical-disc format groups (e.g., HD-DVD & Blu-Ray) to come to some concensus. Their inability to compromise has once more forced the home theater consumer into making a “rock-and-a-hard-place” decision.

Anybody even tangentially interested in home audio/video has to be feeling deja-vu all over again. This sort of battle was first observed with the Beta-max/VHS wars in the early 80’s and more recently the SACD/DVD-Audio conflict. We all are aware of VHS’s eventual domination of the home-video market.  Most average consumers are likely unaware of the SACD/DVD-Audio issue.

 In 2001, Richard Elen wrote a seminal article on the SACD/DVD-Audio war. As this format-battle evolved, manufacturers eventually produced so-called universal players that could play both formats. But this was too little too late. The average consumer, confused about the differing formats’ benefits and long-term prospects, refused to invest in either format’s hardware or software. This has led to both formats (each uniquely superior to red-book CD audio) to be relegated to the audiophile hobbyists.

I am concerned that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray may suffer the same fate.

The likelihood of one of these formats surviving is high, almost guaranteed I dare say. This is due to the ever increasing number of HDTV’s dotting suburban living-rooms. Even the most casual viewer can readily identify the video superiority of HDTV (720p or 1080i) over SDTV (Standard Definition – 480i). This was not necessarily the case with SACD/DVD-A and CD where typical listeners could perceive a difference, but it wasn’t necessarily as jaw-dropping as the contrast between HDTV and SDTV.

So what is a consumer to do? Invest now in both formats so they are not impeded in their ability to see whatever movie they wish? Buy one or the other format and pray they make the right decision? Wait it out until the Darwinian market forces make the decision for them?

Because HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use totally different technologies for reading the discs, a universal player will be difficult to engineer; however, Pioneer is evidently working on just this very thing. Also, a European company, NME, has evidently developed a method for including both formats on one multi-layer disc. These both may be solutions to the problem, but neither is as ideal as having one, unified, comprehensive format.

The bottom line is that none of these decisions are ideal. There cannot be a winner in this battle. The hardware manufacturers will not sell as many units as they would have under a unified format (i.e., DVD). The studios will not sell as many movies to consumers or rental stores. The consumer must either gamble or miss out on utilizing the capabilities of their new televisions. No winner.

Will they ever learn?